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These days, there are just no easy deals in residential real estate. With statewide median prices up over 13% in the third quarter, ultra-low interest rates, and clearly, not enough inventory, finding any sort of “sweet buy” is exceedingly difficult. So, where can one find opportunities today and into the presumed 2021 vaccine recovery? The clear winners in 2020 have been residential home and industrial real estate. And, to no surprise, the clear losers have been office and retail real estate. Income properties and apartment buildings are a bit fuzzier. So, I want to dive in a little deeper on that topic. Major Headwinds for Apartments There have been major headwinds for apartment buildings in 2020
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Yesterday, the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.) released their third quarter housing numbers. The data presented this quarter might be some of the most important received in all of 2020. For this blog, I want to highlight a few facts from the C.A.R. report. Then, I want to dig deeper into housing affordability numbers and how it might affect the market over an extended period of time. C.A.R’s 3rd Quarter Report & Affordability The title of C.A.R.’s press release was: “Higher Home Prices Driven by Dearth of Inventory Depresses California Housing Affordability in Third-Quarter 2020.” Some of their main bullet points were the following: Just 28% of California households could afford to buy the $693,680 median-priced
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Last week, I had the wise idea of doing an “instant” reaction to the California proposition results that affected real estate throughout the state. I should have known better. Here we sit on Friday still without official results as the votes are still being counted. According to the Associated Press, via Google search: “CA proposition results,” there are 76% of the votes being reported. With just over three quarters of the votes counted, this is how the key real estate propositions look as of this morning, Friday, November 6th. California Proposition 15: Change in Commercial Property Tax: California Proposition 19: Change Property Tax Rules: California Proposition 21: Local Government Rent Control: In case you wanted a
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Since the start of the pandemic, I have been sharing details from the excellent reports provided by the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.). Their data is very dependable, and it helps me see real estate with a little more breadth beyond just the South Bay. There were three recent reports released by C.A.R. in the past week that are worth sharing. September Home Sales and Price Report C.A.R. 2021 Forecast with Leslie Appleton-Young Coronavirus “Week 33” Notes/Data Although all real estate markets are local, I think it is worth taking some of the broader data into account when assessing our real estate market. September Homes Sales & Price Report The absolute biggest news from the C.A.R.
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On this week’s blog, I am going to break down the California propositions that will affect real estate here in the South Bay, and throughout the state. I will not give my opinion on which way I am voting, but I will try to give you a summary of Proposition 15, 19, and 21 so that you can decide for yourself. That said, if you are curious to know which way I am leaning, then you are more than welcome to DM or email me and I am happy to discuss. The California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.) gives their recommendations to our local associations on the newly upcoming propositions. You might be surprised that I have
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The 3rd quarter officially ended last week. We now have a large dataset to dig into to tell us how the South Bay real estate market is reacting to this wild and crazy 2020. If you have been a weekly blog reader throughout the year, then you know I have tried to shed light on the South Bay market’s performance in various ways via: First quarter data Month-over-month data Yearly month-over-month data Second quarter data All of these different datasets have had their place over certain times during the pandemic. Today, I am excited to share third quarter data because of the extra-large group of numbers we can compare to help smooth out discrepancies in seasonal
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Interest rates are a topic I normally write about semi-annually, but it has been 13 months since my last rates blog because, well…2020. Thank you all for being patient, I know I have been promising this topic for quite some time now. Over the years, I have found that trying to predict interest rates is a fool’s game. You can end up looking silly and believe me, I have looked very, very silly in the past. Wild Rate Swings In all seriousness, good luck trying to predict rates over the past few years. The movements have been so wild, and incredibly unpredictable. Below is just a glimpse of 30-year fixed mortgage rates over the last five
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It has been a wild year. And, the same can be said for South Bay real estate too. For this post, I am going to share some numbers and anecdotal thoughts on what is happening right now in the South Bay marketplace. The market seems to be shifting every month and we might experience more movement as we go from the third to fourth quarters. Present Demand and Inventory If you read my “South Bay August Home Market Update,” then you know inventory is down throughout the South Bay and Palos Verdes in a significant way. And, if you haven’t had the chance to read that past blog, then you can find that post here. Although
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This 2020 has been crazy, to say the least. You can point out numerous large factors affecting our marketplace in a long list, when usually in most years, there are just one or two factors. Look at this very simply, yet incredibly significant list: February all-time highs in real estate and the stock market. Generationally low unemployment. A 100-year pandemic. The fastest bear market in history. Real estate sales dropping by 75% in one month. Generationally high unemployment. Unprecedented Federal Reserve stimulus. No evictions, no foreclosures, no courts. 30-year mortgage rates below 3%. Rebound in housing well beyond yearly trends. Stock market almost back to all-time highs. Upcoming Presidential election, civil unrest, etc. Historic wildfires, masks,
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Back by popular demand… One. Last. Time. The August South Bay real estate numbers are here. Why only once more? Because year-over-year monthly data is getting less and less valuable. The market shock from the pandemic shut down and swift rebound has thrown off seasonal monthly trends. This year’s spring was the new winter, while summer might be the new spring. And well, if we’re being honest…fall might continue to feel like spring too. After this monthly data post, I am going to focus solely on quarterly data as the smallest aggregate and then try to come up with ways to tell a more accurate story with even bigger data. With market shock and seasonal trends
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