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South Bay August Home Market Update: How Do the Numbers Look?

Back by popular demand… One. Last. Time.

The August South Bay real estate numbers are here.

Why only once more?

Because year-over-year monthly data is getting less and less valuable.

The market shock from the pandemic shut down and swift rebound has thrown off seasonal monthly trends. This year’s spring was the new winter, while summer might be the new spring. And well, if we’re being honest…fall might continue to feel like spring too.

After this monthly data post, I am going to focus solely on quarterly data as the smallest aggregate and then try to come up with ways to tell a more accurate story with even bigger data.

With market shock and seasonal trends in flux, the August data, just like July, is becoming very choppy. And, it might be misleading as well.

At the end of September, we will conclude the third quarter and that will be some juicy data to analyze in all sorts of ways.

For reference, I have included recent past blog posts that cover monthly data for July here and second quarter year-over-year numbers here.

Active Listings Continue to Drop

My biggest interest derived from last month’s post was active listings. It was whacky and still continues to be that way.

Below is active listing inventory year-over-year data for August:

  • Manhattan Beach
    • August 2020: 162
    • August 2019: 146
      • Percent Change: UP +11%
  • Hermosa Beach
    • August 2020: 71
    • August 2019: 76
      • Percent Change: DOWN -6.6%
  • Redondo Beach
    • August 2020: 166
    • August 2019: 183
      • Percent Change: DOWN -9.3%
  • Palos Verdes 90274
    • August 2020: 110
    • August 2019: 157
      • Percent Change: DOWN -29.9%
  • Palos Verdes 90275
    • August 2020: 102
    • August 2019: 173
      • Percent Change: DOWN -41.0%

Active inventory in a nutshell was down big across the board except for Manhattan Beach when compared to August of 2019.

The Palos Verdes Hill continued its huge inventory squeeze while the Palos Verdes 90275 zip had historically some of its lowest inventory levels, ever.

Again, the pandemic and demand for homes with yards is changing behavior in a big way for not just buyers on the hunt for space, but also sellers who now value to keep that space.

Pending Sales are All Over the Map

In past monthly posts, especially right at the start of the statewide stay-at-home order, I stated that pending home sales would be a leading indicator.

And, that has proven to be correct.

Pending sales illustrated market activity falling off a cliff and just like that it shot up quickly to bring the market back to life. Now, respectively, it is not as valuable as the data gets skewed from our new normal.

Below is the pending sales year-over-year data for August:

  • Manhattan Beach
    • August 2020: 34
    • August 2019: 23
      • Percent Change: UP +47.8%
  • Hermosa Beach
    • August 2020: 9
    • August 2019: 15
      • Percent Change: DOWN -40.0%
  • Redondo Beach
    • August 2020: 69
    • August 2019: 64
      • Percent Change: UP +7.8%
  • Palos Verdes 90274
    • August 2020: 39
    • August 2019: 26
      • Percent Change: UP +50.0%
  • Palos Verdes 90275
    • August 2020: 30
    • August 2019: 50
      • Percent Change: DOWN -40.0%

If you were worried about Manhattan Beach seeing inventory up while all the other areas were down, well, pending sales data can put your mind at ease.

The pricy city has plenty of action happening seeing new deals higher by 50% compared to a year ago.

You can see why I say the numbers are whacky as Palos Verdes’ 90274 zip pending sales were down 22% last month and now they are up 50%.

On the flip side, we are seeing Palos Verdes 90275 zip pending sales down 40%. It is all over the place.

Pending sales are a factor but it is only an increasingly small part of the equation now.

Closed Sales, Redondo Beach is Back

Again, this is choppy data and the monthly data really does not tell the nuanced story of our South Bay marketplace.

Below is the closed sales year-over-year data for August:

  • Manhattan Beach
    • August 2020: 48
    • August 2019: 40
      • Percent Change: UP +20%
  • Hermosa Beach
    • August 2020: 22
    • August 2019: 19
      • Percent Change: UP +15.8%
  • Redondo Beach
    • August 2020: 103
    • August 2019: 66
      • Percent Change: UP +56.1%
  • Palos Verdes 90274
    • August 2020: 42
    • August 2019: 42
      • Percent Change: NO CHANGE
  • Palos Verdes 90275
    • August 2020: 51
    • August 2019: 50
      • Percent Change: UP +2.0%

The biggest story here is Redondo Beach.

Two months ago, the June year-over-year monthly data for Redondo Beach was hideous. Closed sales in Redondo at that time were down 47.8%. Today, just two months later, Redondo sales are now up 56.1%.

The 43 “lost” sales in June were made up by a net 37 sales in August. It is tough to make up these swings, but that is our current marketplace thanks to the pandemic.

Median Price, Just for Fun

As always, and mostly just for fun, here is the rolling 12-month median home prices:

  • Manhattan Beach
    • August 2020: $2,500,000
    • August 2019: $2,387,500
      • Percent Change: UP +4.7%
  • Hermosa Beach
    • August 2020: $1,750,000
    • August 2019: $1,638,750
      • Percent Change: UP +6.8%
  • Redondo Beach
    • August 2020: $1,100,000
    • August 2019: $1,080,000
      • Percent Change: UP +1.9%
  • Palos Verdes 90274
    • August 2020: $1,685,000
    • August 2019: $1,692,000
      • Percent Change: DOWN -0.4%
  • Palos Verdes 90275
    • August 2020: $1,250,000
    • August 2019: $1,247,000
      • Percent Change: UP +0.2%

As mentioned last month, these numbers are becoming more and more meaningful as we get additional months under our belt during the pandemic.

In fact, they are worth watching from here on out.

As you can see, prices have held strong or even seen solid growth with the one exception of the Palos Verdes 90274 zip code.

There is no denying that the market has stayed resilient after the scare of the stay-at-home order in early spring.

Price are not going down. Period.

We have many factors to thank, especially interest rates, which will be a big blog topic in the very near future.

Most importantly, thanks so much to all of you for the support and requests to do another monthly report. However, this is the last one until further notice.

I am excited to focus on bigger numbers for more digestible data, along with breaking down the South Bay in a more nuanced way during these unprecedented times.

Stay well and please check out my adorable new duplex listing at 1736 Gramercy Avenue in ever-charming Old Torrance.

Cheers.

DRE: 01779425