This 2020 has been crazy, to say the least.
You can point out numerous large factors affecting our marketplace in a long list, when usually in most years, there are just one or two factors.
Look at this very simply, yet incredibly significant list:
- February all-time highs in real estate and the stock market.
- Generationally low unemployment.
- A 100-year pandemic.
- The fastest bear market in history.
- Real estate sales dropping by 75% in one month.
- Generationally high unemployment.
- Unprecedented Federal Reserve stimulus.
- No evictions, no foreclosures, no courts.
- 30-year mortgage rates below 3%.
- Rebound in housing well beyond yearly trends.
- Stock market almost back to all-time highs.
- Upcoming Presidential election, civil unrest, etc.
- Historic wildfires, masks, and Murder Hornets!
What a year. And, we are not even done yet.
We have been slammed over here at Manhattan Pacific (which we are so grateful for to be busy) and I am off for the weekend to celebrate an anniversary and baby number two due in February 2021.
That is code for me rushing out a blog this week before taking on some R&R with my amazing wife.
I am going to share some real estate thoughts and news, along with ideas on upcoming blogs.
You, my readers, are so amazing to read each week. Please never hesitate to chime in on what topics you want or where I can be a resource to you. I will gladly add it to the upcoming list of topics.
Real Estate Thoughts & News
Home Builder confidence conducted by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose to 83, which is the highest reading in its 35-year history.
Although demand is there, supply might not be able to keep up. Our old friends at Weyerhaeuser, mentioned in past blogs, cut their lumber production in a big way in preparation for a huge recession. Well, that did not com to fruition and there is more demand than ever.
Lumber prices are up 170% since mid-April according to the NAHB, and Weyerhaeuser can’t help ramp up…especially with timber forests and mills hugely affected by the west coast wild fires.
Housing demand has been insatiable nationally, and we have felt that in the South Bay Beach Cities and Palos Verdes. Is this short-term pent-up demand or a longer-term trend?
This incredibly strong market can credit insanely low interest rates as a main driver of prices. If you did not learn during the Great Recession, the old quote “don’t fight The Fed” has never been truer.
Today, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Federal Reserve members signaled rates could be low until 2023.
Residential housing might be in for a mini bull run for the next couple of years, but is it possible or sustainable without low rates?
This is some light weekly news, and a few throw away questions and thoughts on my mind.
I am going to work to address the bigger picture in upcoming blogs on how the residential market will or will not continue its surge and where opportunities might be found.
That said, I definitely want to address low interest rates, building or not building, and a whole host of topics in this ever-shifting, unprecedented real estate market.
Upcoming Blogs
These are blog topics below that I hope to write in the near future to help address market happenings, shifts, and opportunities to help you navigate what is best for you and your real estate portfolio.
Listings, Demand and Building Costs
Go into detail about what we have experienced with our listing and buying clients, along with demand trends and building costs all to be factored in.
Interest Rates
In my opinion, this is the main driver of the incredible rebound and strength in the real estate market. Interest rates deserve a full and thoughtful post and I have wanted to write about this topic for the past couple of months.
Episode Three: Executing on a Real Estate Strategy/Income Properties
I will continue sharing the “live” updates on our strategy of selling specific properties, building new ADUs, and reallocating real estate funds to earn more efficient returns.
Quarterly Numbers
The big data is getting more important! I am excited for the early part of November to dive into these numbers.
Finding Opportunities in Recovery Real Estate
There are no easy deals in residential home sales these days. But, where are other potential opportunities? I see some pockets that could do exceptionally well in 2021 as we recover from the Coronavirus pandemic. This one will be an early prediction…and fun!
Conclusion
That is it for now. Thanks for giving me the leeway to run off on vacation.
I will be back to business and full speed next week.
More to come soon, and, as always, thanks for reading.
Richard Haynes
DRE: 01779425
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The Richard Haynes Real Estate ShowA leader in South Bay real estate for the better part of a decade, Richard thrives as an advisor to his clients with over $248 million in sales as a broker or investment principal at his boutique agency, Haynes. Richard is known for his keen local market insights which have been featured in the L.A. Times, The Street, and Forbes, along with his weekly South Bay real estate blog. [read more]